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2015 NFL picks against the spread: Week 12 has some duds and Pats/Broncos

Weekly picks against the Vegas spread.

We are three games into the Week 12 slate of games this week, as Thanksgiving brought us a full day of football. I started the week 2-1, although I should have known better than to think the Cowboys were seriously going to threaten the Panthers. Oh well.

Last week, I went 8-5-1 ATS. That puts me at 81-76-4 overall entering this week.

Now for this week. Here are my picks against the Vegas spread. But remember, I don't actually bet the games.

Vikings at Falcons (-2.5): The Vikings were exposed a little, but the Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman. The Falcons have been disappointing recently. Vikings +2.5.

Rams at Bengals (-8): The Rams seem to have fallen apart. They are offensively challenged at quarterback and the Bengals are coming off two straight losses. They bounce back at home and will cruise to a win. Do you really think Case Keenum is the answer for the Rams? I don't. Bengals -8.

Raiders (-1.5) at Titans: The Raiders suddenly don't look so great, but now play the Titans, who are bad. Oakland gets back on track. Raiders -1.5.

Buccaneers at Colts (-3): Tampa has a little thing going right now. Jameis Winston is putting up some numbers. But late in the season with both teams in the playoff hunt, I think I trust a wily old Matt Hasselbeck a little more. Colts -3.

Bills at Chiefs (-5): Buffalo will be without Mario Williams. They do have Tyrod Taylor back, but KC is rolling. They look like the team they believed they could be entering the season. Chiefs -5.

Dolphins at Jets (-3.5): This is a game I would not bet. The Jets are faltering and the Dolphins are too inconsistent to trust. The underdogs are covering at about a 57 percent clip this year, so I am just going to toss this to the wind and pick the Dolphins. Dolphins +3.5.

Giants (-2.5) at Redskins: This season has been wacky in the NFC East. Kirk Cousins was true to form with a loss last week after looking great. This is another game to avoid with actual money. With such unpredictable things gonig on, I am taking Redskins +2.5.

Chargers at Jaguars (-3.5): The Chargers are a mess now. The Jags have a little something going. That something will continue. Jags -3.5.

Saints at Texans (-3): This week is a bad one for games. These matchups are terrible. I've been burned too often this year by the Saints. Their defense makes everyone look good. Texans -3.

Cardinals (-10.5) at 49ers: This line scares me at a glance. The Cardinals have an offense that puts up points against anyone. The Niners offense is limited. But after being destroyed 47-7 by Arizona in Week 3, you would think they would be more prepared and fired up for this game. That said, I think Arizona's offense will be too much. Cardinals -10.5.

Steelers at Seahawks (-4): The Seahawks will face another very potent offense. That has not been good for them. If they lose, it is when they allowed 27 or more points. I think it might happen. Steelers +4.

Patriots (-3) at Broncos: This is the biggest game of the week. I like the Broncos defense against a depleted Pats line, but ultimately do you trust Brock Osweiler against the best team in football? That's what makes the decision for me. Pats -3.

Ravens at Browns (-2.5): No more Joe Flacco. No more Justin Forsett. No more Johnny Manziel. This game is meh, but Josh McCown is the guy and he is reliable. Browns -3.