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2015 NFL picks against the spread: Week 15

Betting advice by someone who doesn't bet.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 is here and many believe this is upset weekend. We will see. In terms of making your weekly picks against the Vegas spread, here is how I would go for this weekend's games. Last week I started very poorly, but rallied to finish a very mediocre 8-8. That makes me 104-101-4 on the season picking every game for every week.

This week started with a loss, as the Rams played very well in what could be the final game in St. Louis.

Here are my Week 15 picks.

Texans at Colts (-1): If you don't have to bet this game, don't. There is little to trust in this game because you have two very inconsistent teams. But when it comes down to it, this is essentially a playoff game for both teams. Matt Hasselbeck is a better bet in that sense at quarterback, but the Houston defense should be the difference. Texans +1.

Panthers (-5) at Giants: This is the game where everyone thinks the Giants will get the upset. Carolina is due for a loss and is banged up. They have their postseason spot all wrapped up, while the Giants are in the middle of a very weak divisional race in the NFC East. However, that Carolina defense is stifling. Nonetheless, while I don't necessarily like the G-men for the win, I do think it will be close. Giants +5.

Bears at Vikings (-5.5): The Vikings are going to bounce back after losses to the Seahawks and the Cardinals. The Bears have lost two straight. The fact this is a division game makes this game intriguing, but I like the home team. Vikings -5.5.

Titans at Patriots (-14): They are doing it to me again. I don't ever like going against Tom Brady at home, but now Vegas gives me a 14-point line. That is tough, but I have to stick to my guns. Brady is money at home and the Titans are a mess. Pats -14.

Bills (-1) at Redskins: The Bills are without a bunch of defensive starters and Washington has a nice trend -- they have won and covered four straight home games as underdogs. Redskins +1.

Falcons at Jaguars (-3): The Falcons are a hot mess right now and the Jags are just hot after putting up 51 on Indy. Blake Bortles looks good and they have offensive weapons. Jags -3.

Chiefs (-7) at Ravens: The Chiefs have been a good bet as road favorites, covering nine of their last 10 such games. Baltimore is just a sad situation. Chiefs -7.

Packers (-3) at Raiders: The trends are pretty even. The one thing to worry about here is Aaron Rodgers getting killed. He has been sacked at least twice in every game for the last few weeks and the Raiders have their pass rush rolling. Khalil Mack himself collected five sacks last week and has 14 on the year. But it is crunch time for the Packers, so I like Rodgers more than the Raiders. Packers -3.

Browns at Seahawks (-14.5): Normally I saw beware of these lines, but the Seahawks have been rolling offensively and now play a very bad team. Seahawks -14.5.

Broncos at Steelers (-7): Brock Osweiler has been sacked a whole bunch. The Steelers, though, will face a stingy Denver defense. I do like the Steelers to win, but the Broncos defense tells me it will be close. Broncos +7.

Dolphins at Chargers (-2): Hello, crap game. Don't bet this game. It is terrible. Both teams have terrible trends. They are both bad teams. So I'll go with the home team. Chargers -2.

Bengals (-4.5) at 49ers: I can't tell you what to expect here. San Fran is playing better and they will face the Bengals without Andy Dalton, but the Bengals are simply more talented and they still have a lot to play for. Bengals -4.5.

Cardinals (-3.5) at Eagles: Arizona has been money in prime time games in terms of wins, but they have been keeping things interesting. This is why this line is so nice. I think it will be a close game. Cardinals -3.5.

Lions at Saints (-3): Prime time game in New Orleans? I know they haven't been good this year, but the Lions haven't been as good as they looked after recovering from their terrible start. Saints -3.