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What are the chances Larry Fitzgerald will reach 1,000 receptions this year?

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Not likely.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 900 receptions and proved to be the most reliable wide receiver on the team. But despite that, it is undeniable that his production has gone down over the past 5 years.

While I believe Fitzgerald will do better in 2015, ultimately he will not catch the 91 receptions he needs to reach 1,000 career receptions this season even if both he and Palmer are healthy.

Yesterday, I covered the reasons Fitzgerald’s production fell the past three years. The reason for my belief that he will improve is that two of those reasons, namely, poor quarterbacks and learning a new offensive system are no longer true.

But he still won't break the record because of two new reasons, improving skill players around him and a diminished role in the offense.

Year

Age

Tm

Pos

No.

G

GS

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Lng

R/G

Y/G

2013

30

ARI

WR

11

16

16

135

82

954

11.6

10

75

5.1

59.6

2014

31

ARI

WR

11

14

13

103

63

784

12.4

2

80

4.5

56.0

I know what the counter arguments are:

"Give Fitzgerald sixteen games with a healthy Palmer and they will become the next Warner/Fitzgerald."

"If Michael Floyd returns to previous form, John Brown becomes a deep threat and Andre Ellington is fully healthy, suddenly Fitz may no longer be taking the defenses full attention allowing him to be open more often."

Frankly, those are valid argument points.

However, if the other skill players get better. The ball will be spread around even more with a healthy Palmer. The average receptions Fitz caught in the six games he played with Palmer were 5.33 which over 16 games equals roughly 85 receptions. Almost the exact same in 2013.

Larry Fitzgerald will still play well and be a productive football player, but he won’t reach the 1,000 reception milestone in 2015. He is not the team's centerpiece on offense anymore.

Personally, I want him to break the record. I want the rest of the NFL to realize Fitzgerald is still one of the best wide receivers playing. The fact I believe he won't break it this year is good for the Cardinals because I believe the team as whole will be good enough to win without having to rely only on him.

The only way I believe Larry Fitzgerald breaks the record is either 1) The team becomes a top 10 offense or 2) other skill players at tight end and running back fail to be used as receivers.

Only one option would make me happy.