If you were like many people, you saw that Week 2 was a disaster for winner picks. Things were down for me. After an 11-4-1 Week 1, I still managed to salvage an 8-8 week against the Vegas spread. With apparently more predictable games, I am already off to a 1-0 start, as the Giants took care of business against an awful Redskins team.
How do I see things going in Week 3? Here are my picks (all trends info comes from the Trend Machine):
Raiders at Browns (-3.5): They got a huge win at home against Baltimore, but that defense is depleted with no Terrell Suggs. The Cleveland defense is nothing to laugh at and Derek Carr will be unlikely to find the same success on the road. Plus, all-time against the AFC North on the road, Oakland 8-18 ATS. Browns -3.5.
Falcons (-2) at Cowboys: No Tony Romo, no Dez Bryant and perhaps no Jason Witten. That means you have to trust Brandon Weeden to win. I don't. Atlanta has also covered their last five road games. With the added help at pass rush, the Falcons send the Cowboys to their first loss of the season. Falcons -2.
Colts (-3.5) at Titans: The Colts are off to a bad start, but they play in an awful division. They also played two very physical defenses. Tennessee is not the Jets or the Bills. Andrew Luck will look more like Andrew Luck. Last season, the Colts didn't cover the spread their first two games and then went 12-5 the rest of the season against the spread. Colts -3.5.
Steelers (-1) at Rams: What are the Rams? They beat the Seahawks at home and then lost on the road to the Redskins. That doesn't make sense. The Steelers have one of the best offenses in the land and get Le'Veon Bell back. Steelers -1.
Chargers at Vikings (-2.5): I'm still not sure what to think of the Vikings. The Chargers are going without Antonio Gates, but that has really no impact on the Chargers. They are 10-3 ATS when Gates doesn't play. Chargers +2.5.
Jaguars at Patriots (-13.5): Beware of the big spread like this. However, Tom Brady is lighting up defenses to the tune of seven touchdown passes. Even though I am wary of this spread, I just don't really like betting against Brady at home. Pats -13.5.
Eagles at Jets (-2.5): My heart says Jets, but my head says don't trust them. Their defense is so good, but the Eagles offense can't be down for that long, can it? And we can't have a world with a 3-0 Jets and 0-3 Eagles, right? Ryan Fitzpatrick is 9-5 ATS in his last 14 starts, but Chip Kelly's Eagles have covered eight of 11 road games as underdogs. This is not a confident pick, but I am going Eagles +2.5.
Bengals at Ravens (-2.5): Baltimore returns home after a shocking loss to the Raiders. There are two trends here. Andy Dalton is 4-1 ATS facing Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco is 6-12-3 ATS against the AFC North as a home favorite. Plus, with no Terrell Suggs, I don't think they have the heart they need in their defense yet. Bengals -2.5.
Buccaneers at Texans (-6.5): We have seen a bad Jameis Winston and a decent Jameis Winston. How will he do against J.J. Watt? I'll take Watt and the defense here, but I don't like Ryan Mallett. That spread is too much for me. Bucs +6.5.
49ers at Cardinals (-6.5): Last season, the Cards beat the Niners by nine at home with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Now the Cards have one of the league's best offenses so far and have a healthy Carson Palmer who has yet to be sacked. With no Reggie Bush as a threat out of the backfield in the passing game, I think this is a lock. Cards -6.5.
Bills at Dolphins (-2.5): I wouldn't bet this game at all. Buffalo stops the run, but Ryan Tannehill can put up big passing numbers. As hesitant a pick this is, I will take Dolphins -2.5.
Bears at Seahawks (-14.5): Oof. This spread. But the Seahawks are angry and at home. Plus they will face an awful Bears defense and Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. If they can't over here, Seattle's season really is in trouble. Seahawks -14.5.
Broncos (-3) at Lions: You cannot trust Matthew Stafford at home. He has covered only two of 16 starts at home the last two years. Peyton Manning covers 60 percent of the time on the road. Plus, the Denver defense is so very good. Broncos -3.
Chiefs at Packers (-6.5): This is the money trend -- teams the week after playing the Seahawks are 0-11 straight up and 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games. I also like the physicality of the Chiefs defense. They will be fired up after falling apart against Peyton Manning. I like the packers to win, but I like the Chiefs to cover. Chiefs +6.5.