How To Scout A Quarterback (Part 4): Level of Competition for the Top 2017 QB's

Welcome to the fourth part of our "How To Scout A Quarterback" series on Revenge of the Birds.

In this series, as someone who studied and learned from an actual NFL scout, I've been detailing the prime areas and factors that scouts use when evaluating quarterback prospects for the NFL.

If you missed the earlier articles in this series, you can find the other parts below:

Part One: Parcells Rules

Part Two: Stats, Red Flags and Measurables

Part Three: Velocity and Injuries

Today's topic will be one that is thrown around quite a bit but is difficult or seldom applied correctly with Quarterbacks: the argument for level of competition.

What "Level of Competition" or LOC is in a nutshell is evaluating how talented the opponent a player faced was.  For example, a running back going up against an SEC school and dominating will count as a higher positive than a running back who plays a weaker run defense in the Midwest Conference.

Now, one thing to keep in mind, as I've been repeating throughout this whole series, is this fact:

The goal is to look for red flags rather than propping a player up.

While it's true that having big games against tough competition or having a high completion percentage can elevate a player to scouts, not all teams, coaches and surrounding talent is equal.

Rather, since the draft is ultimately a crapshoot, the goal is to find red flags, or areas that could doom a prospect at the next level or equal a lack of success.

As we've looked so far, we've seen how problems with accuracy in completion percentage, turnover ratio, injury history and a low amount of starts and reps are all potential red flags that could pop up amongst prospects.

For this next category, we look at the highest level of competition.

What NFL scouts look for in scouting a quarterback (or any other player) is seeing that they weren't just dominant against easy opponents but that they stepped up and delivered against the best that college football had to offer.

-A good example would be how Johnny Manziel was viewed by the league for his two dominant performances against Alabama, demonstrating that he could compete against a team stacked with NFL talent and even delivered a victory.

-That said, the same argument needs to also include his two downer games against LSU and Mizzou, in which he struggled greatly.  None of those games made or broke him as a prospect (it was the off-field, obviously) but it was a key part of the evaluation.

-It was also one that was ignored by many with Dak Prescott.

Prescott dominated in the SEC, the toughest in college football and raised Mississipi State to a top team in the country.  He probably wasn't given enough credit based on his level of competition.

-Meanwhile, the Division II quarterback who was taken at #2 overall was Carson Wentz.

And it was surprising to many as Wentz played such a lower level of competition and...he wasn't totally impressive even against the best that Division II had to offer but he did win two championships (at a school which had already won three in a row, however)

For example, here are Wentz's stats against the highest level of competition that he played in Division II:

Carson Wentz

Conference:
NCAA Missouri Valley Conference

Games vs:

Iowa State, Illinois, Jacksonville (all D2)

Completions/Attempts:

49/79

Completion %:

62%

Yards:

638

TD's:

5 TD's (with 3 rushing TD's)

INT's:

2 INT's

TD/INT:

2.5

Avg. Yards/TD/INT per game:

212 yards, 2 TD's and .66 INT's per game

W-L:

2 Wins (including 2 championship games) and 1 loss

While Wentz won two championships, the level of competition and the average stats he put up in each game were overall less than impressive.  He had just over 200 yards passing and while his numbers look a lot better when factoring his rushing yards and TD's....QB's have to play the game from the pocket.

All in all, Wentz never got to go up against a team from a top 5 power conference, either due to injury or schedule so there would definitely be concerns about how Wentz didn't dominate versus seeing how the overall North Dakota team (which won 3 championships before he started as their quarterback) was so strong in Division II overall.

NFL scouts do, indeed have a type as we learned from the Parcell Rules.  And Wentz fit what the NFL liked better, so while it can be easy to cling to these numbers....just how many people would have said that Dak Prescott should have been taken #1 overall?

Very few.  And that's part of what make the NFL such a fun, dynamic league.

As you can see, this isn't a perfect science even amongst NFL scouts who do this for a living.  All we can do is measure the best we can and look for the keys.

NOTE: For scouting quarterbacks, it's a passing league.  Adding in rushing totals and touchdowns, while for many quarterbacks it's a big part of their game, is merely an added bonus rather than essential.

If a quarterback can't develop as a passer in the NFL and has to rely on his running ability, it could limit their development as they take more hits outside the pocket.

So, with that introduction done, let's break down how the Top 10 quarterbacks in this class fared against their toughest games versus elite competition that they played:

Deshaun Watson:

Conference:

ACC

Games vs:

#1 Alabama, #1 Alabama, #3 Ohio State, #3 Oklahoma, Pittsburgh

Completions/Attempts:

135/200

Completion %

67.5%

Yards:

1,614

TD's:

12

INT's:

6

TD/INT:

2.0

Avg. Yards/TD/INT per game:

359 Yards, 3 TD's, 1.5 INT's

W-L:

3-2

Watson dominated versus Bama and Ohio, winning a national championship and showing that he compares very similarly to his overall completion % and TD/INT ratio as a whole.  This shows that he isn't beating up on bad teams, and while he had a down game against Pitt and had three interceptions, he did also throw the ball 70 times for 530 yards due to Clemson's struggle to run the ball and stop Pitt's attack.

All in all, Watson's proved he can handle the top competition and it's a check-mark in his favor especially.

Level of Competition?

Green Light

Mitch Trubisky

Conference:

ACC

Games vs:

#12 FSU, #16 Miami, #16 Stanford

Completions/Attempts:

93/123

Completion %:

76%

Yards:

984

TD's:

7

INT's:

2

TD/INT:

3.5

Average Game:

328 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT per game

W-L:

1-2

Trubisky was likewise consistent versus the most difficult teams he played in his one season of starting, keeping up a high TD: INT ratio and a high completion percentage.  However, his numbers did move down slightly against these tougher teams

While his spread scheme is a factor in this high completion number, the fact that his numbers didn't fall versus the top defenses could bode well for him at the next level and shows he's an accurate passer even when he is facing great competition.

That said, there is one big caution:

Trubisky had three games in which he threw an interception in, and he threw TWO of them in both games.  North Carolina lost both of those games as well.  In short, Trubisky when facing teams who are able to force turnovers might throw him off his game, and it's something to consider as he plays at the next level as potentially risky.  Other than that, this would be a checked box for him.

Level of Competition?

Yellow Light

Patrick Mahomes

Conference:

Big 12

Games vs:

#3 TCU, 7 Baylor, #12 Oklahoma St. #16 Oklahoma, #17 Oklahoma, #22 LSU

Completions/Attempts:

199/343

Completion %:

58%

Yards:

2,807

TD's:

22

INT's:

9

TD/INT:

2.44

Average Game:

467 yards, 4 TD's, 1 INT

W-L:

0-6

Mahomes's stats are gaudy and the lack of defense in the big 12 helps.  That said, while it's expected that quarterbacks should have a lower TD: INT ratio and completion percentage versus the toughest teams, his dipped down a bit more.

Part of this, however, might be due to an outlier of a game in which he tossed 4 interceptions against Oklahoma in 2015, while in the rest of his games he never threw more than two.

Mahomes and Watson's numbers versus the top competitors?  Very, very similar.

What's also worth noting is how Texas Tech under Mahomes never won a game against a top 25 ranked team while he was there, despite him throwing for 450+ yards and 4 TD's a game.

This is part of the evaluation process where you can say that the Quarterback clearly played well despite his team not doing so.  For example, Mahomes threw for 370 yards and 4 Touchdowns against LSU in their lone bowl appearance and yet the team still lost by 29 points because their defense was so atrocious.  But some scouts will still want to see the wins.

All in all, I thought that Mahomes would have struggled more than he did and turned the ball over more frequently.  The fact is, despite not winning a game against the top level of competition, it's hard to blame the quarterback when he clearly did all he could to try to help his team to victory despite a lack of talent around him (and the same goes for Deshaun Watson elevating the talent around him against Alabama in the 2015 National Championship).

All in all, considering the talent he had, Mahomes was just as consistent against the best teams he played all things accounted for.

Level of Competition:

Green Light

Deshone Kizer

Conference:

FBS Independent
Games vs:
#7 Ohio State, #12 Clemson, #12 Michigan State, Stanford, USC

Completions/Attempts:

105/191

Completion %:

54.9%

Yards:

1,557

TD's:

9

INT's:

6

TD/INT:
1.5
Avg. Yards/TD/INT per game:
259 yards, 1.5 TD's, 1 INT

W-L:

0-6

And here we see another red flag in Deshone Kizer's game popping up: his numbers decreased dramatically against top tier competition.  His 1.5 TD: INT ratio shows that he turns the ball over quite a bit against the tougher teams and on average he's throwing for less yards as well despite having similar numbers of attempts to Deshaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky.

Kizer throughout this whole process seems to be accumulating red flags and this metric hasn't proved to be different with him so far.  While you can't prop a guy up more than you ought to for playing well against highly talented teams, it's impossible to ignore the struggles a player has likewise.

Level of Competition?

Red Light

That'll wrap it up for this article.

Now, I'll have the rest of the quarterbacks' LOC in a future article this week, which will have some fun information going over Chad Kelly's dominance against Alabama as well as Brad Kaaya and the quickly-rising Davis Webb.

Otherwise thanks for joining!  Do you have any thoughts on the level of competition for quarterbacks?  Do you think that Deshaun Watson isn't getting enough love?  Or is he getting too much?

Sound off in the comment section!

You can follow @blakemurphy7 on Twitter.