As we head into the final two weeks of the 2018 NFL Draft season, there are a couple of things to remember.
- No one truly knows anything.
- Mock Drafts are just that, mocks.
- Value ultimately lies in what the NFL says, not what Mel Kiper, Todd McShay or any other pundit says.
The last one is important.
Last season, the final mock drafts of the three biggest names in the business, Kiper, McShay and Mike Mayock had the Arizona Cardinals taking:
Kiper - Mike Williams, WR
McSHay - Malik Hooker, S
Mayock - Marlon Humphrey, CB
Williams ended up going top ten, Hooker and Humphrey were both on the board when the Cardinals decided on Haason Reddick.
Reddick’s value was anywhere from a top ten pick to 16 according to those in the know.
Meanwhile, future top ten pick, Patrick Mahomes was mocked at 25, 32 and 32. Deshaun Watson? Kiper mocked at seven, Mayock and McShay both said 25.
It is not just quarterbacks. Corey Davis, the fifth overall pick, was mocked 16 by Kiper, 18 by McShay and 21 by Mayock.
Reuben Foster was mocked top ten in two of the mocks and then 22 in the lowest. He was taken 31.
The best part, this is just the first round. Chaos reigns in the NFL Draft and trying to understand or explain the chaos is an exercise in futility.
That’s why when you see mock drafts two weeks before the draft that have the Cardinals passing on a quarterback, or a wide receiver falling to 47 or a guy that looks and sounds like a late first or early second in Frank Ragnow, you just take in the information.
Because, on draft day, this mock draft won’t matter, especially since the maker likely did two or three more in that time frame.