The question was asked the other day, how do other positions stack up against quarterbacks as far as first round busts go?
Well, let’s buckle up, because it is about to get ugly for the Arizona Cardinals.
First order of business was the offensive line, since it always seems like we are talking about the Arizona Cardinals needing help on the offensive line.
Well, since 2008, 62 total first-round offensive linemen were taken, 20 of those players went on to at least one Pro Bowl:
Over the last 10 drafts (2008-17), 62 total 1st-round OL were taken.— Dylan DeSimone (@DylanADeSimone) April 14, 2018
20 became Pro Bowlers: Scherff, Lewan, Z. Martin, L. Johnson, K. Long, Frederick, M. Kalil, DeCastro, T. Smith, Mi. Pouncey, T. Williams, Okung, Iupati, Ma. Pouncey, Mack, Wood, J. Long, Clady, Albert, D. Brown
The Arizona Cardinals have of course drafted two offensive linemen in the first round in that time frame and have a combined 45 starts from them in Jonathan Cooper and D.J. Humphries.
Yet, nearly 1 out of every 3 first round offensive linemen is a Pro Bowler over the last decade.
If you go back an additional year, the Cardinals have drafted three offensive linemen in the first round: Humprhies, Cooper and Levi Brown. The NFL has seen 66 drafted and 23 went to Pro Bowls, meaning there was a nearly 35% chance the Cardinals would draft a Pro Bowl player in the first round.
That’s astounding when you learn that the Cardinals have drafted 11 first rounders in that time frame and have two, Patrick Peterson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, that were Pro Bowl Players, or just over 18%.
From 2008 to 2017 the hit rate was roughly the same on quarterbacks, nine Pro Bowlers in 27 drafted. If you add in the 2007 season, it lowers down to 31% in the same time frame.
If you want to get really weird, 19 interior offensive lineman have been drafted in the first round since 2008 and 10 have been Pro Bowl players... That’s right, 1 out of every 2 interior offensive lineman is a Pro Bowler if drafted in the first round in the last decade... Unless you play for the Arizona Cardinals.