FanPost

The First Overall Pick in the Draft is a Game Changer for the Cardinals

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The First Overall Pick in the Draft is a Game Changer for the CardinalsThe first pick in the NFL Draft is not where franchises aspire to be. "Winning" the first pick means your team lost a lot of game the previous fall. Yet, it is a beacon of hope for franchises who believe their team team is on he cusp of dramatic improvement. The Arizona Cardinals are the next team hoping that the number one pick will help turn their franchise around. Since the NFL changed the pay structure of draft picks in 2011, drafting number one has become ground zero for rebuilding efforts. Prior to 2011, NFL franchises doled out huge sums of money for unproven players. The last player to receive one the large contracts was Sam Bradford, who signed a six year $78 million deal in 2010. The following year, Cam Newton signed a four year $22 million contract. The cap hits for these young players creates salary cap space for teams to build around their young stars, while not handing out could-be albatross contracts to unproven players. This allows teams to improve quickly.

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In 2010 the Carolina Panthers went 2-14. They were beaten by ten or more points in twelve of their sixteen games and scored seven or less points in five games. In 2011 they went 6-10 and only lost three games by ten points or more while being held to a touchdown or less only once. In 2012 they went 7-9. In 2013 they went 12-4. In 2015 they went 15-1 and went to the Super Bowl. Cam Newton's affordable rookie contract gave the Panthers the cap flexibility to put a winning team around Newton.

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The Indianapolis Colts won the 2012 Andrew Luck lottery by going 2-14. They were a horrible team, starting 39 year old Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. The next three seasons, with Luck behind center, the Colts went 11-5 and went to the playoffs.

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Kansas City is an NFL powerhouse. The hiring of Andy Reid changed the dynamic of the franchise, along with bringing in Alex Smith as quarterback. In 2012 the Chiefs went 2-14 under Romeo Crennel and took tackle Eric Fisher with the first pick in the draft. In 2013, with a competent head coach and quarterback, the Chiefs went 11-5 and haven't looked back, finishing the 2018 NFL regular season with a 12-4 record and one of the best offenses in the NFL.

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Jadaveon Clowney was a freakish highlight machine at South Carolina. The Texans won the rights to draft Clowney by going 2-14 in 2013 under the leadership of Wade Phillips and Gary Kubiak. The next season, under current head coach Bill O'Brien, the Texans went 9-7, as they did the next two seasons before bottoming out at 4-12 after star rookie QB Deshaun Watson went down with an ACL tear. In 2018, with a healthy Watson, the Texans finished 11-5 and are headed to the playoffs.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are our outlier. They went 2-14 under Lovie Smith, which got them the right to draft Florida State Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Winston was a controversial player leading up to the 2015 Draft. He had been arrested for shoplifting, accused of sexual assault, and famously stood on a table in the middle of FSU's student union and shouted, ahem, a rather vulgar statement. The Bucs went 6-10 in 2015 and Smith was shown the door in favor of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was uninspiring and was fired after the Bucs went 9-7, 5-11, and 5-11. Winston was up and down and was outplayed by journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bucs failed to take advantage of a rookie QB on a cap friendly contract and now have a decision to make about Winston's future with the team.

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The 2015 St. Louis Rams went 7-9 under Jeff Fisher (shocker). The Rams were on the verge of moving to Los Angeles and made a trade with the Tennessee Titans to move up to select Cal quarterback Jared Goff. Fisher famously told the team they would not go 7-9 again. Goff had an infamously bad rookie season in 2016 under Fisher, who lasted 13 games before he was fired. Many wondered if Goff was a bust. Enter Sean McVay in 2017. Goff blossomed under McVay's tutelage and the Rams went 11-5 and won the NFC West. In 2018 the Rams had one of the NFL's best offenses, finishing 13-3 and repeating as NFC West Champions. Pairing Goff with an offensive minded head coach did wonders for the young quarterback and the Rams improved dramatically by adding key defenders because they had a young QB, along with Aaron Donald, the league's best defensive player, on cap friendly contracts.

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The Cleveland Browns have been the laughingstock of the NFL for going on twenty years. In 2016 they went 1-15 and drafted Texas A&M star pass rusher Myles Garrett. In 2017 the Browns went 0-16, becoming only the second team in NFL history to finish a sixteen game season winless. The Browns made the bold move to select Oklahoma passer Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick. The Browns stagnated and Hue Jackson, one of the worst coaches in NFL history with a .205 winning percentage, second worst in NFL history among qualifying head coaches. Firing Jackson lit a fire under the Browns, who finished their last eight games 5-3 and are now seen as one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL going into the 2019 season.

So, what lessons can the Arizona Cardinals learn from the above teams?

For one, the first pick in the draft must be a player at one of the four most valuable positions in football: quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher, or cornerback. The Cardinals invested the 10th overall pick in the 2018 draft on UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen started thirteen games for the Cardinals, who were an utter mess under the leadership of head coach Steve Wilks, who was fired the day after the season ended. The Cardinals have a shutdown cornerback in Patrick Peterson, who will don a gold jacket in Canton after his career ends. The Cardinals also have one of the league's best pass rushers in Chandler Jones, who was signed to a five year $83 million contract in 2017. Left tackle is a question mark with the unsteady play and injury concerns of former first round pick DJ Humphries. But, when looking at the first overall pick in the draft, a team has to take an impact player. Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa would be a great fit opposite Chandler Jones. By investing heavily in Jones with his massive contract extension, pairing him with an explosive pass rusher like Bosa, who would be on a team friendly contract for the next five years, would reshape the Arizona Cardinals defense. In today's NFL, passing the football and rushing the quarterback are on the top of every team's draft checklist. By going with Bosa on a cap friendly deal, the Cardinals would have, in theory, one of the best pass rush tandems in the NFL.

Secondly, the Cardinals have to nail their head coaching hire. Of all the above teams, every one but the Buccaneers complimented their first overall pick with an outstanding new head coach. The Bucs hired Dirk Koetter, who was underwhelming and was fired. If the Cardinals draft Bosa, hire the right guy, and use their cap space wisely to surround Rosen with protection and playmakers, like the Rams did when they drafted Goff, the Cardinals could be one of the surprise teams of 2019.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.</em>