It’s that time of year.
The NFL draft is here and below is my “What I think will happen” mock based on what I’ve seen, heard and (obviously) can guess and will probably be wrong on.
anations coming shortly)
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
After some last-minute guessing about Quinnen Williams, I think the fact that Murray wouldn’t be at the actual draft versus at home unless he KNEW he was going at #1 and the idea that amidst all the smoke, usually the news we hear at the NFL Combine turns out to be true (last year many local AZ beat writers predicted post-combine Arizona would take a QB, just weren’t sure in which round).
The Cardinals will move Rosen and...possibly, won’t be done on Day 1 (more on that later).
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
49ers have had problems identifying good edge rushers for YEARS. I wouldn’t be shocked if they went Quinnen here in a shocker however but am guessing even amidst recent “Instagram liking photos” that Bosa is the guy. If Murray falls, look for a team to trade up to this pick, however.
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Your guess is as good as mine if the Jets trade down from here but I have an idea as to why they might not. First can be seen in the pick after this. Second is...that Quinnen is REALLY good. Some have guessed if the Giants trade up from here but I can’t see Dave Gettleman actively moving up for a quarterback over an edge rusher with Eli as their starter next year.
All in all, the top 3 talents in this draft go in the top 3 picks.
4. (Trade with OAK) Washington Redskins: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Surprise! Brother and brother work out a deal under Dan Snyder’s supervision to move up and solve the Skins’ QB issue. The Raiders move back and get even MORE assets while Jay (not Jon) Gruden lands the guy from Ohio State.
I have a feeling that the ‘Skins will do something crazy and screw themselves over long-term but...who knows. Some have said Jones, others Haskins. I know the better QB on tape when I see them however. Would guess it’ll be a 2nd, and a future 1st and future 3rd to get it done to jump Oakland.
If Ed Oliver happens to go top three, the Raiders could want to take Quinnen. I’ll guess that the Raiders only “love” one quarterback in this draft and it won’t be Dwayne Haskins. The crazy rumor I heard is Gruden possibly going TE at this pick with Hockenson. Now THAT might be fun.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
Bruce Arians + Off-ball linebackers with athleticism. Easy pick to make, here.
How the Cardinals started building their defense in 2014 for Todd Bowles was by drafting Deone Bucannon and they do the same again, here.
6. New York Giants: Josh Allen, Edge, Kentucky
I so want to give Daniel Jones to the Giants here, but can’t see them passing on an edge rusher like Josh Allen, who’s lucky to even fall to the 6th pick here. Perhaps they like Montez Sweat better but I think Allen’s the guy for Gettleman and Co.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jonah Willaims, OT, Alabama
Having Jawaan Taylor here is the common choice and I can’t see it being different...except a point that the RotoWorld podcast and Evan Silva made about a connection between the Jaguars OL coach and Alabama, which led them to draft Cam Robinson earlier in the previous year. I’ll bet they go Jonah, a MUCH better prospect over Taylor here and over T.J. Hockenson.
8. (TRADE with DET) Atlanta Falcons: Ed Oliver, DT, Louisville
If Oliver starts to slide, pairing him with Grady Jarrett is an amazing move for the Falcons.
9. Buffalo Bills: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Buffalo could go a lot of directions here, but ultimately I think they take Wilkins even over a tackle given that Jonah Williams is off the board. Wilkins was probably a top 10 pick if he had declared last year and doesn’t fall too far in 2019.
10. Denver Broncos: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
He’s no “Lock” for this pick (hehe) but Bush might be an even better linebacker than Devin White overall and makes a ton of sense to run new HC Vic Fangio’s defense with Brandon Marshall leaving for the Oakland Raiders. The Bears too Roquan last year and thrived and a similar move makes sense for the Broncos here, even if Elway likes Drew Lock a lot.
Don’t be shocked if the Broncos trade down with a team like the Texans who’ll have to leap the Bengals for a tackle like Andre Dillard. Speaking of...
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Picture this: Cincinnati gets jumped for a quarterback. They have Andy Dalton. Desperation is what leads bad teams to trade up for quarterbacks. While the Bengals aren’t great, bad teams can also double down and I think the Bengals will wait until 2020 to address the QB position if Dalton struggles again with a new offensive mind.
Or, perhaps they are sleeper contenders for Josh Rosen.
12. Green Bay Packers: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Some picks make a lot of sense. This one certainly does for the Packers, even if Montez Sweat or another player is being hyped up. Some have said Hockenson won’t be there at 12, but I think the Quarterback trade up will put him here for the Packers.
Hockenson is SO good.
13. Miami Dolphins: Brian Burns, Edge, Florida State
Almost had Jawaan Taylor here think this will be an edge-rushing draft and Burns is a local product. That might sway ownership a bit as he can bend the edge under new defensive-minded head coach Brian Flores, who’s seen Chandler Jones’ ability first-hand to affect a team up in New England.
14. (TRADE with ATL) Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississipi State
My guess is that Sweat doesn’t fall too far after the heart condition questions happened,but he takes a tumble similar to Star Lotulelei a few years back and the Lions take him over a tackle here.
15. (TRADE with WAS) Oakland Raiders: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
I think if Brian Burns falls he might be the pick here but Gary is an athletic freak. There’s definitely a “risk” here given how raw he is and I think that’ll appeal to Gruden, who takes a pass rusher and adds even MORE picks to his and Mike Mayock’s arsenal.
16. Carolina Panthers: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
I’d normally guess this would be a pass rusher or a tackle and I’ll go with tackle for Carolina.
17. New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
When the Giants inevitably draft Daniel Jones their fans will be like:
But at least he knows Eli, right?
18. Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
Kirk took almost as much a beating as Josh Rosen last year and moving Elflein to guard and taking maybe the “safest” center prospect in this draft would be perfect for the Vikings.
19. Tennessee Titans: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Tennessee is a tough pick here. They could take a pass rusher, a defensive player or even a wide receiver or offensive lineman given their love of Derrick Henry & commitment. But let’s go full #TeamChaos here and assume that the Titans see the injury-riddled and struggling Mariota in a contract year as their version of Joe Flacco.
Why not grab a rookie QB contract guy if they are there rather than trying to trade up into the top 5 next year? Not everyone will like Lock but as a passer he’s probably much more advanced deep than Mariota is.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
While I like Greedy Williams as a corner, I think Ya-Sin’s more physical, has a better frame than Williams and better size than Byron Murphy and tested out just fine. He or Greedy could be the pick here.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington
Seattle is curious now given their two first-round picks, and I think one gets used to protect Russell Wilson. McGary I’m betting will be drafted much higher than many are listing him as right now.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
The Ravens need to open up the passing offense and Brown makes a LOT of sense to pair with the other Brown, except he’s much more dangerous in quick and short fields and can separate, which should help Lamar Jackson out and make the Ravens more than a Tight End & Running Back only offense.
23. Houston Texans: Chris Lindstrom, OG, Bostom College
This pick could be a trade-up for a guy like Andre Dillard, but if they stay put, Lindsrom could be a pro-bowl type guy at guard who starts right away.
24. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Raiders have the top pass-rushers gone and with Marshawn Lynch retiring, this pick makes too much sense for Gruden to make, and there’s a notable drop-off after Jacobs.
25. (TRADE with PHI) New England Patriots - Noah Fant, TE
I could see the Eagles trading down with the suddenly Gronk-less Patriots given their need for a tight end and they could land a true FREAK for Tom Brady. The Pats keep taking all the good things and I don’t think Fant makes it much lower than this.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
I’ll pick the Colts here over the Raiders to stash and keep Simmons, a top 10 talent who tore his ACL. Though it wouldn’t shock me if he falls to the bottom of the first round.
27. Oakland Raiders: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
Man, I don’t know if the Raiders would want a TE or a CB or an edge player here but Lawrence can give them a stout up-front defense and even get some interior pressure on Mahomes. Beginning of something great if Maurice Hurst can step it up.
28. (TRADE with LAC) Arizona Cardinals: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
Surprise surprise, the Cardinals shock the world twice and move up for the local kid, an Arizona State product they’ve been connected to throughout the draft process.
AND they still have their pick at 33. How? Simple...they send QB Josh Rosen along with a 3rd rounder (first pick in the 3rd round, mind you) along to Los Angeles for pick 28 overall. Everyone wins as the Chargers don’t have to lose a pick flat-out and get a better quarterback than they would have gotten this year and the first pick in the 3rd round.
For those saying “This would never happen!” let’s look at it from each team’s perspective:
- Cardinals—they land a WR they covet and can still trade down or draft the best offensive lineman at 33 rather than wait another 14-32 picks to grab a less talented OL/WR in the third round (and pacifies a fanbase that might be upset over N’keal Harry being drafted).
- Chargers—would you rather have a player at pick #28 or have Josh Rosen and effectively two 2nd round picks (given that AZ’s is the top of the 3rd round)?? Fix your future QB issue and have two close picks to add needs and talent
It makes a LOT of sense from all sorts of angles and it’d be interesting to see these two teams get creative come draft day...#TeamChaos for the win.
29. Seattle Seahawks: Nasir Adderley S, Delaware
Yes. Replacing a new Earl Thomas is a must and he’s likely the top safety drafted this year for the Seahawks, who could use an edge player here but don’t find one to their liking. Perhaps they trade back again from this pick if a quarterback falls like Lock or Jones to this point.
30. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Risner, OL, Kansas State
I’d love to give the Packers an edge rusher here as well but value and needing to help out Aaron in the window the Packers have make this an easy choice to give them a versatile starter on the offensive line.
31. Los Angeles Rams: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
The Rams need offensive linemen. I think Elgton Jenkins is in play her as can play either on the interior OR at center and has more experience in a pro-style, heavy run game in the SEC over Erik McCoy...but Ford can slide RIGHT in at left guard to fill the gaping hole left by the departing Roger Saffold. The Cardinals see a rival take a player they would have liked to see fall to 33.
32. (TRADE with NE) Philadelphia Eagles, Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
Originally I had Dexter Lawrence going here earlier at 25 but after looking at the Patriots and their twelve (12!) draft picks it made too much sense for them to move back and still pick up a 1st round talent in Tillery to slide next to Fletcher Cox. A fun pick here in the late first would be JJ Arcega-Whiteside as they need receiver help but it’s a deep receiver class and there won’t be a player like this falling to the second round, even if some “strange” rumors about interviews with Tillery cause him to slide.
That’s it! Let the games begin.
For another look you can follow the Revenge of the Birds Podcast Mock Draft at this link below for another potential Day 1 NFL Draft mock.
Until then, see you on the other side of the first round.