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Value is an interesting concept.
It’s inherently decided by the price you pay whether or not it’s actually worth that price to anyone else.
The value of your house is not what you could make on it, instead it is what someone is actually willing to pay you for it.
That’s why the discussion on Josh Rosen’s value seems so… different.
The common thought by those in the media and who draft analysis is that Rosen’s value is a first round pick.
The Arizona Cardinals paid that value last year, plus a third and a fifth.
Now, as the tightrope walk of what the Arizona Cardinals will do with the first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft continues, Rosen’s value seems to be… much, much lower.
We’ve heard that the Cardinals have been offered a second round pick by three teams, but at this point that doesn’t seem to entice management that they are getting anywhere near a fair return on their initial investment.
Thus, the Cardinals still see value in Rosen.
Meanwhile, reporters for teams like the Giants are saying the Giants wouldn’t even be interested if it was for their second round pick. Which makes sense. The Giants didn’t think Rosen had value last year, they took a running back, albeit a great one, over him.
So, why is no one willing to give up a first for Rosen?
I think there are three important things to remember:
- Value is inherent to the buyer, not the seller. The seller may want what they consider value, but in the end the buyer is the one that is paying the actual price. No team wants a cost controlled QB for only three seasons for a first round pick. They can get one at the same price and guarantee themselves four years of cost control.
- Rosen’s one year of experience doesn’t matter. It was awful and he may only be 25% to blame. So, you’re basically getting Rosen at the value of what you had him coming out of UCLA, remember three quarterbacks were taken before him and five teams that needed quarterbacks or still need quarterbacks said no thanks. So why would the Giants or Broncos all of a sudden change their mind?
- This is the biggest reason why the Arizona Cardinals are unlikely to get a first, what they consider value of Rosen. He has to play right away. What teams that are in the mix need Rosen to play this year? It’s literally the Washington Redskins.
This is why despite the whispers behind the scenes that the Cardinals are set on Kyler Murray, I don’t completely buy it still. If the Cardinals still value Josh Rosen, and it sure as hell seems like they do, then if they think a first is his worth, then I would implore them to stay with Rosen in 2019. If Kliff and companies grades are Murray at a 9 and Rosen at a 7, then roll with Rosen.
Unless the grades from Kliff and co are so different, then stick to what you think Rosen’s value is worth, a first.
If the Redskins are only offering 46 and a 2020 third, then move forward with Rosen in 2019.
Washington/Rosen looks more and more like the pairing, unless someone else steps up their offer.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) April 4, 2019
LAC, NE, NYG...
I think a 2nd and a future mid
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) April 4, 2019
The Cardinals hold all the cards… make them call your bluff.