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Kyler Murray passing yards over/under seems like an easy call

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Cleveland Browns v Arizona Cardinals Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

The Arizona Cardinals are hoping they have someone special on their hands in Kyler Murray and after one year it seems that they do.

Murray put up more than respectable numbers as a rookie: 3,722 yards 20 touchdowns 12 interceptions 544 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns.

That is why when Murray’s 2020 passing yard prop bet came out through BetMGM and his over/under numbers came in at only 3,949.5 yards it seemed low. Only 228 more yards in his second season?

The over and under are both -110, meaning the oddsmakers feel like it is a fair line for Murray with not much juice on either side of the odds.

I went back through and looked at players that finished over 3,700 yards as rookies and what they did in year two.

There have only been seven in NFL history including Murray and how did they do in year two?

Andrew Luck - 4,374 yards (R) — 3,822 yards
Cam Newton - 4,051 yards (R) — 3,869 yards
Jameis Winston - 4,042 yards (R) — 4,090 yards
Carson Wentz - 3,782 yards (R) — 3,296 yards (13 games)
Peyton Manning - 3,739 yards (R) — 4,135 yards
Baker Mayfield - 3,725 yards (R) — 3,827 yards

Luck, Newton, Wentz and Mayfield all failed to make a leap in passing yards in year two. That is a bit concerning when you look at Murray’s numbers in year one and just assume year two will be a jump.

While it seems like an easy and obvious call, the history of quarterbacks who had a good season one, there is only Manning who made a big statistical leap in year two.

Can Murray be the second?