The Arizona Cardinals have been buzzing about Dan Arnold.
He’s become a hyped up part of an offseason that has really shifted expectations for the Cardinals.
The question becomes what are realistic expectations for Arnold to produce in this offense and if he’s going to out up numbers, who is losing touches.
Last season Kyler Murray had 349 completions, the NFL leader Matt Ryan had 408 completions. Let’s imagine that Kyler has a jump but also be realistic that it will unlikely be the to the top and say he gets to 375 completions in 2020.
What can we expect from Arnold? The top three receivers, assuming health with take up 240 completions (100 for Hopkins, 75 for Fitzgerald, 65 for Kirk).
That leaves 135 catches for the rest of the team.
Kenyan Drake, David Johnson and Chase Edmonds combined for 72 catches, I think 70 catches is understandable for the receivers in 2020, but let’s reduce it to 65.
That leaves 70 catches for Andy Isabella, Maxx Williams, Dan Arnold and miscellaneous games of 1-2 catches for receivers. Can we expect Arnold to take half of those catches?
I’ve talked with Jess Root on the Rise Up, See Red Podcast about this and the reality is to me, anything of 20+ catches for Arnold is a good season. Anything over 30+ catches is going to be interesting because we’re either talking about a great offense or expectations not being met by one of the top three receivers or the running back room.
That’s why I think a fair expectation for Arnold in 2020 is something like: 25 receptions 275 yards 4 touchdowns.
If Arnold is within that range he’ll have produced and the Cardinals will likely field a very good offense.
We can judge the way those stats worked out at the end of the season, and maybe that is a breakout for Arnold, because I’d be more than happy with those results in 2020.