NFL Teams in 2022 That Were Most Likely to Win

In consideration of the team rankings in four key categories (offensive QBR, defensive QBR, points per game and turnover differential) and determining the average of the four rankings that, I believe, can serve as a barometer for which teams were the most apt to win.

• Team —- O-QBR —- D-QBR —- PPG —- TOD —- AVE
• ARI —- 28th —- 31st —- 21st —- 26th —- 26.5*
• ATL —- 17th —- 29th —-17th —- 24th —- 21.7
• BAL —- 23rd —- 16th —- 16th —- 9th —-15.7
• BUF —- 7th —- 4th —- 5th —- 15th —- 7.8
• CAR —-23rd —- 24th —- 20th —- 24th —-23.2*
• CHI —- 26th —- 26th —- 24th —-20th —- 24.0*
• CIN —- 3rd —- 1st —- 6th —- 6th —-4.0
• CLE —- 21st —- 11th —- 19th —- 16th —-16.8
• DAL —- 16th —- 10th —- 4th —- 2nd —-8.0
• DEN —- 25th —- 7th —- 32nd —- 16th —- 20.0
• DET —- 5th —- 25th —-8th —- 4th —-10.5
• GB —- 17th —- 15th —- 15th —- 12th —-14.8
• HOU —- 31st —- 7th —- 30th —- 16th —-21.0
• IND —- 29th —- 30th —- 30th —- 32nd —-30.2*
• JAC —- 9th —- 17th —- 7th —- 7th —-10.5
• KC —- 1st —- 27th —- 1st —- 22nd —-12.8
• LV —- 19th —- 32nd —- 14th —- 30th —-23.8
• LAC —- 11th —- 14th —-12th —- 7th —-11.0
• LAR —- 24th —- 20th —-27th —- 16th —-21.8
• MIA —- 8th —- 28th —- 11th —- 8th —-12.2
• MIN —- 12th —- 21st —- 9th —- 12th —- 13.5
• NE —- 18th —- 8th —- 18th —- 4th —-12.0
• NO —- 10th —- 9th —- 22nd —- 31st —-18.0
• NYG —- 14th —- 18th —-13th —- 11th —-14.0
• NYJ —- 32nd —- 2nd —- 29th —- 28th —-22.8
• PHI —- 6th —- 3rd —- 2nd —- 3rd —-3.5
• PIT —- 30th —- 12th —-26th —- 9th —-19.3
• SF —- 2nd —- 5th —- 3rd —- 1st —-2.8
• SEA —- 4th —-13th —-10th —- 12th —-9.8
• TB —- 15th —- 22nd —- 23rd —- 20.0
• TEN —- 20th —- 23rd —-28th —- 23.7*
• WAS —- 22nd —- 19th —- 25th —- 23.8*

Top 5 Teams Most Likely to Win (in BOLD)

Top 5 Teams Most Likely to Lose (in Italics with an asterisk at the end)*

2022 Most Likely Super Bowl Matchup:

CIN vs. SF

Most Impactful Game-Changing Plays in the AFC and NFC Championships:

• The Bengals’ 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Patrick Mahomes that led to the Chiefs’ game winning FG.
• Haason Reddick’s 1st quarter strip sack of Brock Purdy which resulted in the torn elbow ligament that prevented Purdy from throwing the football from that point on.

KC vs. PHI Super Bowl Outcome:

• The Chiefs went into the season with the intention of starting five rookies on defense. As a result of the rookies’ learning curve, the Chiefs struggled to consistently thwart opposing QBs —- and they improved a great deal as the season went along. Regardless, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense picked up the slack time and time again and were able to pull of a stellar 17-3 Super Bowl winning season
• Despite the Eagles converting the most first downs (25-21), significantly more yards from scrimmage (417-340), and dominating the time of possession (35:47 to 24:13), the Chiefs were able to win this nail biter, not only because of Patrick Mahomes’ brilliant playmaking in the second half, but thanks in large part to a defensive fumble return TD in the first half by LB Nick Bolton and to a timely 65 yard punt return by Kadarius Toney. That, and some brilliant clock management by Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ players to set up the game winning field goal with 8 seconds left, sealed the victory.

Key Categories:

• QBR: Patrick Mahomes —- 96.4; Jalen Hurts —- 79.7
• Points: KC 38 —- PHI 35
• Turnover Differential: KC +1; PHI -1.

Significance:

Obviously, the Cardinals need to improve in these categories —- which should be interesting to chart and keep an eye on. The improvements are going to necessitate the correct practice and game planning habits —- plus the teamwork and discipline of the coaches and players to manifest big-time on game days.