2023 NFL Draft: Arizona Cardinals hold the most important pick in the 2023 NFL Draft

Yesterday we ran through two different 2023 NFL Draft scenarios with the two biggest names in the game, Mel Kiper Jr. and Daniel Jeremiah.

Their mock drafts came out hours apart, so to see them both have the Arizona Cardinals drafting Will Anderson Jr. as the first non-quarterback taken was exciting.

One thing that caught my eye more though was a note each had, with the same teams as potential trade down targets.

From Kiper:

If Las Vegas or Seattle gets involved, Arizona could get much more.

From Jeremiah:

I won’t be surprised if the Cardinals trade this pick to Indianapolis, Seattle or Las Vegas.

In Kiper’s mock the Arizona Cardinals did make a trade down with the Indianapolis Colts for an absurd amount, where they received 1.04, 2.35 and 3.79. We discussed yesterday, but a similar move down yielded the equivalent of: 1.04, 3.79 and 4.106 and a third in 2024 for the San Francisco 49ers in 2017 when they moved from two to three with the Chicago Bears.

Kiper mentions a bidding war, so maybe that is how the Cardinals get this years second in return, but man that seems like a pipe dream.

However, both mention the same three teams in this trade down scenario, which means it is a poorly kept secret that all three want to move up and make sure they secure the quarterback they want.

Talking to an Indy guy, he believes that Ballard would make the deal for a third, fourth and future third, but doesn’t see him going with a second rounder this year. He said they have a favorite quarterback (not disclosing who) but that their QB1 to QB3 is close enough that they wouldn’t overpay. Which makes me think they don’t have Bryce Young in those three names.

It is interesting that both Seattle who just re-signed Geno Smith and Las Vegas who just signed Jimmy Garappolo are the two teams mentioned because I have been assured on this site neither team would have an interest in moving up now.

Based on those I have spoken with the target would be Anthony Richardson or C.J. Stroud for both teams. The explanation being that Will Levis would be a little too old to sit for the two years.

So, if you are Arizona what could you expect from each?

Obviously a bidding war changes things, but let’s take a look at what a reasonable offer would be from each group:

• Indianapolis Colts: 1.04, 3.79 and 4.106 and a third in 2024
• Seattle Seahawks: 1.05 and 2.37 and a third in 2024
• Las Vegas Raiders: 1.07 and 2.38 and a first in 2024

While it is impossible at this juncture to value those ‘24 picks, here is what the immediate Gain/Loss is in each scenario:

Cardinals -5.59%

Cardinals +1.36%

Cardinals -8.91%

Obviously getting future picks changes each to a net positive for the Cardinals, but the question becomes, what type of reward would you want? Do you want the immediacy of a Seattle trade down, or do you want the looming expectations and additional picks of a Colts or Raiders trade down?

If you throw in the likely 63rd pick we should be hearing about for DeAndre Hopkins in the coming days, would it change what you want for the pick 1.03?